Why frontier innovation may be getting harder to produce — and why that is a first-order economic problem.
Our own research points to a long-term stagnation in the production of the most paradigm-shifting forms of innovation.
Our work is motivated by a growing body of evidence suggesting that the innovation system is becoming less effective at producing the breakthroughs that fundamentally reshape industries, technologies and economies. Research points to declining disruptiveness in science and technology, falling research productivity, and a broader slowdown in productivity growth. Our own research, drawing on novel measures that distinguish frontier and transformative innovation from more incremental advances, reinforces this concern and points to a long-term stagnation in the production of the most paradigm-shifting forms of innovation.
The stakes are significant. Innovation is a fundamental driver of productivity, competitiveness and long-term economic prosperity, and breakthrough discoveries have historically played a central role in generating major advances in living standards and economic growth. Understanding why frontier innovation may be becoming harder to produce therefore requires sustained and rigorous attention. Our work seeks to diagnose these challenges by examining the forces that shape not only how much innovation occurs, but what kind of innovation is produced, which ideas receive support and capital, and which are able to progress and scale. This provides the evidence and conceptual foundations needed to identify where innovation systems may be falling short and how they can be strengthened.